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Sports Betting 1
Sports Betting 1 - Learn How to Bet on Sports
For starters, you will need to be patient. There are very few games that offer value. You only want to be on a game in which you feel that you have an overlay. (information and odds in your favor).
You must be very well disciplined. Avoid playing games in which your favorite team or favorite player is playing. These factors and can will skew your vision and created a biased opinion which will end up costing you.
Check out stats on how both teams have played lately. See who is hot and who is cold. Break it down even further by figuring out what players are hot and which are cold. Do this for approximately the last 5 games in baseball, 3 games in basketball/football. Also know how teams do on the home vs. the road.
Other factors to be heads up for include checking lineups before the game starts to make sure key players aren't sitting, injury reports, weather and more. You will see lots of trends and angles on the web, but don't make a play based solely on that info. What happened years ago really has no bearing on what happens today. It's very rare in professional team sports that one team "owns" another as well, so beware of those type of stats.
Bet on bad teams! Yes, you read that correctly! Good teams win, bad teams cover. It's all part of the public perception game that the bookie plays when he puts out the days/week's lines. Beat him at his own game.
Avoid betting on too many games. The sportsbooks are forced to put out lines on each and every game, you however have the advantage over them because you aren't forced to bet on every game! While it's fun to do so for "action" reasons, it's murder to your bankroll.
Avoid sucker bets. You wouldn't bet the big 6 or big 8 at the craps table because they don't give you odds. Well why would you bet a sucker bet where the odds are stacked against you in sports betting? Namely, we're talking about avoiding gambling on teasers and parlays. Their fun but hard to beat.
Watch for line moves. If there is significant movement in odds or point spread, there is a reason. Often times it's a lineup issue but other times it may be that one side of the game (one team) is getting pounded with action so the oddsmakers are moving their lines accordingly to try to make the other side attractive to bettors to jump on and bet. Find out the reason why the line moved and if it's got good reasoning behind it, consider betting it yourself, but not if it's moved too much.
Your average bet should be no more than 2-3% of your current bankroll. This means that if your bankroll is $1000, you shouldn't be betting more than 20-30 dollars on any one game. You are going to hit highs and lows while gambling. You need to be able to sustain the bad times and stay afloat, hence the importance of managing your loot correctly. You wouldn't get your paycheck and go blow it all on the first day would you?___________________________________________________________ | |
| Money Management...(SAMPLE)
Money management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don't have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering.
BANKROLL
One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.
BANKROLL UNIT BET
A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S%P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals
Successful sports gamblers view the sports betting marketplace like a business or investment opportunity. How do the "sharp bettors" profit in the long run? How do they get their edge? We look at how professional money managers earn long-term excess returns and how we can apply similar techniques to help us in our sports handicapping.
Some investors seek value by being contrarian investors. Others are momentum investors. Another strategy is to follow the lead of "smart investors" such as successful fund managers or famous investors like Warren Buffett. We'll see what similarities we can find in the sports investing arena. The information on this site is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Use of this information is in violation of any federal, state, or local laws is prohibited. Many will dismiss outright the ability to make good returns on your investment through the medium of sports betting. It is not really surprising as betting is hard work, solitary, and you have to grind out thousands of bets to get your returns.
Of course to many members of society - betting also carries a great big "loser" tag. This is not without justification since the vast majority of sports bettors do lose. I would, however, estimate that the percentage of "losers" would be equally high in the world of stock trading and investment markets if you considered those individuals who entered that environment without the necessary experience. Most people trust their savings and investment income to experts and no doubt if the betting public
trusted their income to the 4% or 5% of betting experts who made a profit - the loser label might become less sticky. SO WHAT KIND OF RETURNS CAN YOU EXPECT?
Generally I have found that sports betting produces bettor,average returns year on year. It is tougher psychologically as you generally act in a lone capacity. No corporate social or support structure, professional team environment. But then no bosses, politics, you know the score. Betting is also virtually recession proof,lets face it only a huge war might disrupt the national sports schedule. Sports markets are not influenced by the economy. You will love it or hate it
It may seem like I’m making comparisons between apples and oranges when talking about SPORTS INVESTING and investing in the STOCK MARKET! But the truth of the matter is, both situations need the man behind the BETS to have made an in depth study, of all of the key statistical data, company employees or team/player personal and their management and ownership and their past performances! Both must usually either show the ability for upward momentum, or show the ability as a whole to fulfill your belief in them as solid proposition at the price being asked!price being asked!
INVESTMENT PLAN
If you have what it takes to be emotionless when it comes to the outcome of games and veiw your sports betting not as gambling but as any other investment you have in your portfolio, then you will be amazed at the huge R.O.I.(return on investment) potential that a smart bettor has. Here is the breakdown of the investment...
First off, you must have a bankroll set aside exclusively for betting. This is your investment. Here's the part that shocks most ameteurs...Picking 55% winners over the course of 1000 plays (an average of 3 plays per day for 1 year) will double your money. Hard to beleive? Not only is it true it also protects you against prolonged losing streaks that are common in sports betting. Let me explain....
55% winners over 1000 plays breaks down as follow...550 wins 450 losses. Add 45 to the losses for the vig and do the math...550-450-45=55 net wins. Since you will be playing over 20 plays per week you don't want to risk more than 2% of your bankroll per game.Let's say your BR is $50,000. That makes you a $1000 per game player. It is IMPERATIVE not to move off of that amount NO MATTER WHAT. That's the size player you chose to be when you made your investment. So after 1000 plays at 55% winners nets you $55,000, more than doubling your investment. See if Meryll Lynch has a mutual fund with that kind of return.
Of course, there is still a risk of losing your bankroll even with this approach. Simply go 50% for 1000 games and you're broke (500 wins - 500 losses - 50 vig = 50 net losses x $1,000 / game =$50,000 loss). Or go 48% over 500 games to be down $46,000 @ $1,000 / game (240-260-26=46 net losses). That's why I must emphasize that it's not as easy as it seems to go 55%-58% over the long haul. The linemaker is extremely accurate in the number he gives the bookmakers. With today's technology it is fairly easy to come up with a "good" number on a game by running recent stats and trends through computers along with injury reports and wheather conditions. All of this same information used to make the line is readily available to everyone online. That's why, as mentioned earlier, we're not conventional handicappers. By toiling over stats and trends you're just rehashing the linemakers work. He already used the same info to make the line that the average bettor uses to pick games..
We tend to overthink what sports betting is and how to make money from it. In the most basic terms, sports betting is simply an investment, just like buying a house or putting money in the stock market. And, just like any other investment, your success in sports betting will be directly proportional to the amount of risk you incur. You'll often find people, even myself, telling you that sports betting is not a "Get Rich Quick" scheme. The fact is, however, that it CAN be. But, if you pursue the "Get Rich Quick" angle, you should also be prepared for the case where your effort turns into a "Go Broke Quick" accomplishment. If you are in a position in life that allows for great risk, then go for it. If not, you should adopt a more conservative stance.
Picking the Right Handicapping Service
Once you have decided that investing in a capper service is worth it, it is now time to decide which service is right for you. There are plenty of legitimate services out there, but there are probably about ten times that many scam sites. We're going to give you some pointers in how to spot a keeper, and how to dismiss the scam.
? That Service a Scam?
- Does the service guarantee that its picks will be winners? Even rookie bettors understand that there is no such thing as a guaranteed winner. Steer clear of sites that offer these picks.
- Does the service post their picks at the start of each game? Sites that don't do this may still be legitimate, but be careful. Anybody can post winning picks after the games have ended.
Other than following these two points, you need to rely on your common sense to spot the scams. If a service sounds too good to be true then it probably is.
?Which Legitimate Service Should you picK
A sports handicapper typically charges $10-25 daily for his picks in just one sport each year. How incredible would it be if I spend the money to subscribe to over 50 different internet handicappers, then reveal to you in my private members area
ALL of their picks every day, and You, the bettor,
will never have to rely on the opinion of one sports handicapper again!
top 5 picks
MY WAGER TRACKER
RAY POLACCO JR. ...email raypolaccosports@yahoo.com
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